MLB 2026: Second-half preview, rankings, projections, playoff odds - ESPN

That the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record and the largest division lead in baseball as the second half of the season gets underway certainly is not a shock.

Beyond that, however, a look at the standings shows a lot of surprises.

The Chicago White Sox tied for the AL Central lead? The Tampa Bay Rays with the best record in the American League? The Detroit Tigers eight games under .500, potentially making Tarik Skubal one of the biggest trade deadline prizes in decades?

And how about the National League? The Miami Marlins sitting in a wild-card spot? The Washington Nationals, along with the Pittsburgh Pirates, leading baseball in runs scored? The Philadelphia Phillies digging out of a 9-19 hole that cost manager Rob Thomson his job to sit two games out of the division lead? And the New York Mets, with a payroll of more than $375 million, wallowing in last place with the second-worst record in the NL?

Didn't see all that coming. What could come next?

We've broken down all 30 squads into six tiers based on playoff potential and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo and Eric Karabell to provide a rundown of what the rest of the season looks like for each team. We've also included Doolittle's final win-loss projections and calculated division title, playoff and championship odds for all 30 teams.

Rest-of-season projections are based on 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining schedule using Doolittle's power ratings for each team as the basis for the simulated outcomes. The power ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.

Note: Teams are in order of best-to-worst playoff odds within