Mike Clay's NFL Betting Playbook for Week 10 - ESPN

Week 10's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.

Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.

Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.

Indianapolis Colts -2.5 @ New England Patriots
Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, Germany
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET

Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (-125); New England Patriots (+105)
Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Colts by 0.8 (52.4% to win outright)

Line Movement Alert: Opened Patriots -1

Projected Score: Colts 22, Patriots 18

Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (+110): Since returning to a substantive offensive role in Week 6, Taylor has scored twice in four games, with a team-high expected TD mark of 2.5. Taylor has had two carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in the past two games, which is tied with Zack Moss and Gardner Minshew for most on the team since Week 6. Despite sharing the backfield with Moss, Taylor ranks sixth in RB touches over the past four weeks. New England has allowed eight RB touchdowns this season (10th most), including at least one in seven out of nine games. Moss is also a fine «anytime TD» bet at +320.

Over/Under: 40.1 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Colts