Kentucky Derby 2023 Storylines: Forte, Todd Pletcher, the search for a longshot and more

In 1939, Winston Churchill referred to the Soviet Union and its motivations as “A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The same type of phrase can be used each year to describe the complexity of the Kentucky Derby and its many story lines.  So, for those who haven’t looked closely yet at this year’s race, a good starting point might be to summarize some of the key story lines.

The biggest money-winning trainer in the history of North American racing does not have great percentages in America’s greatest race. From a record 62 entries, he has won twice, finished second twice, and been third four times. It should be noted, however, that many of these horses were longshots that didn’t have much of a chance, and the shortest-priced horse Pletcher has ever entered was his 2017 winner, Always Dreaming, who was a lukewarm favorite at $4.70-to-1.

This year is not a typical year for Pletcher horses in the Kentucky Derby. The leader of his brigade is Forte (#15, ML Odds: 3-1), who is virtually certain to be the favorite, with odds of around 5-2 or 3-1. He’s earned his status, with wins in six of seven races, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby. He’s far from a certainty to win, but he is clearly the most accomplished horse in the field, and he overcame a difficult trip to win the Florida Derby. After that race, his multiple-Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., said: “He just keeps coming. I mean it’s his heart. He just likes to win.” That effort is looked on with admiration by some in terms of how he overcame a wide trip from an outside post, but those who look at speed figures do not consider Forte to be unbeatable. They note that he had a higher figure in his final two-year-old race