Just How Many Homers Will Kyle Schwarber Hit on New Phillies Contract?

Just what can Kyle Schwarber accomplish with five more years in the Phillies lineup?

Kyle Schwarber will stick with the Phillies through 2030, after agreeing to a five-year, $150 million contract at the winter meetings. It will end up being the team he spends the most time on in his career, as he’s already at four years with Philly and will eclipse the six he spent with the Cubs before the middle of the contract hits.

With the kind of power that Schwarber has — power he has continued to display as he enters his mid-30s — it’s fair to wonder if he’s going to start showing up on any of the Phillies’ all-time leaderboards. The short answer: yes. The longer answer is below.

Schwarber will be 33 in 2026, after hitting a career-high 56 dingers last summer. Expecting him to hit the half-century mark every year would be a bit much even if he were a decade younger, but Schwarber has averaged 43.8 homers per season since he first left the Cubs back in 2021. In that five-year stretch, Schwarber has gone yard 219 times — that’s good enough for third in MLB, behind just Aaron Judge (249) and Shohei Ohtani (233). This trio are the only players with over 200 bombs over the last five years.

The most optimistic — and maybe not realistic — expectation would be for Schwarber to just keep it going for another five years. If he were to do that, he would have 438 long balls in a 10-year stretch. A more conservative — and safer — expectation would be 80% of that, or, 175 home runs over a five-year stretch. That would be 35 home runs per year, which builds in some room for Schwarber to continue to crush the baseball at the level he has in his late-20s and early-30s, but also leaves room for those numbers to drift closer to 30 per year as his