Judging overreactions to World Cup bracket: How far could USMNT go? - ESPN

Have you caught your breath yet? The group stage of the 2026 World Cup was packed with memorable moments (how about Cape Verde?), and it's hard to believe that it was merely the appetizer for three weeks of knockout international soccer on the world's biggest stage.

After several days of head-spinning permutations and uncertainty about matchups, the bracket is now fully set. That means it's the perfect time to judge some overreactions to the potential games in store for us, taking stock of which teams are set up for success and which might be tumbling out of the tournament earlier than expected.

Let's dive in, starting with the United States.

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Pay no attention to the final group loss to Türkiye — the United States played a starting XI made up almost exclusively of backups. When looking at the first two games, there's not much to dislike. The first match, against Paraguay, featured some of the most breathtaking attacking play we've seen from the U.S. men ever. The win over Australia showed a different side to Mauricio Pochettino's squad, one comfortable with building a lead and holding on to it without allowing even the slightest thought of a comeback.

Expectations and confidence have understandably skyrocketed for the U.S., and the FIFA algorithm awarded them one of the easiest possible opponents for the round of 32: Bosnia and Herzegovina. The DTAI Sports Analytics Lab out of KU Leuven, a research university in Belgium, gives Bosnia and Herzegovina the fifth-lowest Elo rating (a figure that captures the relative ability of each team based on recent results and strength of opponent) of any team