Judging 10 early-season NBA overreactions - ESPN

Welcome to the final days of October, featuring falling leaves, early sunsets, Halloween decorations illuminating the night — and the yearly pastime of overreacting to the first week of a new NBA season.

After all, small sample size theatre has provided early gems such as:

The sky is falling in Oklahoma City, New York and Miami!

The three-guard experiment in San Antonio needs to go!

Charlotte is already better without LaMelo Ball!

Ty Jerome? Ty Jerome!

With those early storylines and more in mind, let's examine 10 popular overreactions to the young 2026-27 season — and determine which have staying power. (Note: stats through Tuesday's games.)

Zach Kram: Not an overreaction

For reference, 2007-08 was the last time the Heat finished with fewer than 37 wins, the season that they tanked down the stretch to go 15-67 in a futile attempt to land Derrick Rose in the draft.

Merely by the law of averages, the 2026-27 Heat are bound to improve. They've had the seventh-worst shooting luck on offense, according to GeniusIQ tracking, and the second-worst shooting luck on defense. Miami is actually forcing teams into tough shots, but its opponents have been on fire regardless, making 53% of their midrange shots and 40% of their 3s, per Cleaning the Glass.

On the other hand, the Heat's offense has been stuck in the mud even accounting for that poor shooting luck, and guard Davion Mitchell is the only role player who looks comfortable playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo. There's time for that to change — but as of Wednesday, ESPN's Basketball Power Index predicts the Heat will finish the season with just 38 wins. That's already down from 46 projected wins in the preseason, and just one ahead of this historical franchise benchmark.

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