Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday’s NHL action

Last Saturday, more visiting teams won than home teams.

The same thing happened on Sunday and Monday.

The home teams rebounded on Tuesday and Wednesday, but then on Thursday it was the road teams that finished the night with more wins again.

One thing that stood out about the results was the respect that certain teams were getting based in part due to the perception of home ice advantage, which created the opportunity to bet on the visitors at better value. 

This week, I am targeting a pair of road teams, along with one of the NHL’s premier home teams, which just happens to be smarting from a tough home stretch.

Saturday, March 5 – 12:30 PM ET

The Blues are quietly ascending. They have won 66 per cent of their games since January 1, and their analytics in the month of February were excellent. To start the season, they dominated on home ice and drowned on the road, but that has recently changed.

Of their last half-dozen road games, the Blues won four. They didn’t exactly eke out these victories, either, winning all four games by multi-goal margins. Against the New York Islanders on Saturday, I think the Blues match up quite well.

This might be an oversimplification, but the Islanders’ offence can be reduced to two plays: let Mathew Barzal create or go low-to-high and hope to generate an opportunity off a defenceman’s shot. The Islanders’ limitations on offence are compounded by the uncertainty of whether Barzal will play.

Barzal has missed the last three games and is listed as day-to-day. If he is out again on Saturday, the Islanders’ rush attack will be dependent on how much Brock Nelson can generate in transition. If the Blues can stifle Nelson’s line, comprised also of Anthony Beauvillier and Anders Lee, the Islanders