Intelligent Hockey: Best bets for Saturday's Game 2

The Stanley Cup Final is always clear-your-calendar-viewing, but this matchup is especially juicy in terms of the star power and imprint on the league landscape. The Tampa Bay Lightning, a prospective dynasty, tries to collect its third straight Cup, a feat which had seemed impossible in the 21st century. At the same time, the Colorado Avalanche have the hallmarks of a franchise that could be embarking on its own dynastic run. With a surfeit of skill sharing the ice, the inclination might be to lean into overs. Instead, I am loving the unders and the home team.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche Saturday, June 18 – 8:00PM ET

Hockey scores can be deceiving. A team can get dominated, but stay close because of goaltending. By contrast, a tightly fought game at 5-on-5 can yield a lopsided score because of special teams. A score tells the result, but can mask the story.

Game 1 of the Cup final was decided in overtime, but the play was decisively in Colorado’s favour. The Avs nearly doubled the Lightning in shots at 5-on-5. In the underlying metrics, Colorado finished with a 2.66 expected goals while Tampa Bay produced a meagre 1.22. I’m picking the Avs to win again in Game 2 for three reasons.

First, the forecheck. The Avalanche were immensely successful at interfering with and obstructing the Lightning forecheckers path to the puck. This gave Colorado’s defencemen time to retrieve the puck and make reads to cleanly exit their end. Conversely, the Avs’ forecheck excelled, as evidenced in the Valeri Nichushkin goal.

On the Nichushkin tally, a Lightning breakout imploded from a relentless Avs forecheck. The stretch pass by Victor Hedman to Ross Colton was foiled. A pass to the outlet, Nick Paul, got blown up by a