Indianapolis Supercross by the numbers: The title is Eli Tomac’s to lose

If historic Supercross numbers are an indication, Eli Tomac must be considered the favorite to win the championship heading into Indianapolis since the points’ leader after Daytona has won the title 78 percent of the time. Since 1990, after the series began racing 16 or 17 rounds, that number increases to 88 percent of the time.

Additionally, the first rider to reach four wins in a season won the championship 78 percent of the time. Tomac scored his fourth win of 2023 at Oakland on a night when he tied Ricky Carmichael for third on the all-time wins’ list. Last week in Daytona, Tomac took sole possession of that position with his record-extending Daytona Supercross win and sits within one victory of tying James Stewart for second.

In post-race coverage, Stewart asked Tomac to just get it over with. As the defending winner of this race, Tomac might just catch Stewart on Saturday.

Entering Indianapolis, the Supercross numbers show that the champion has won five or more race in 42 of 49 seasons. Tomac is there, and we are just now cresting the halfway point of 2023.

But Tomac has not completely been able to separate from either Cooper Webb, who he leads by just five points, or Chase Sexton (-10) in a battle that has seen the margin shrink as often as it expands. The reason is: This is the third consecutive race and the fourth of 2023 these three riders stood on the podium together.

Last week, Daytona featured a battle between Sexton and Justin Barcia. Notably, their 10-lap average at the beginning of the race was within 0.08 seconds on one another. Both riders have won a pair of 250 East championships, (Barcia in 2011 and 2012, Sexton in 2019 and 2020), and with how close there were on course, it was inevitable that the two