How real are good starts from Rays, Cardinals, Pirates, White Sox? - ESPN

The back-to-back World Series titles for the Los Angeles Dodgers helped cement the sentiment that baseball is too predictable.

Their success, however, ignores much of the unpredictability of recent seasons. Of note: The Texas Rangers went from 68-94 in 2022 to a World Series title in 2023; the Arizona Diamondbacks reached the Fall Classic that season just two years after going 52-110; the Toronto Blue Jays improved by 20 wins last season and came heartbreakingly close to a championship. Even the Milwaukee Brewers, who reached the NL Championship Series in 2025, were just 15th in ESPN's preseason Power Rankings before going on to lead the majors with 97 wins that season.

With the chaotic start to the 2026 season, it looks almost certain that we're going to see a surprise team — or three — making a run into the postseason. In this edition of Real or Not, let's dig into which of these clubs look like serious playoff contenders and which might fade as the 162-game season rolls along.

Record: 30-15, 9-1 in one-run games
Run differential: Plus-25
Preseason Power Ranking: 21

From their original breakout season in 2008 through their last playoff appearance in 2023, the Rays followed a similar pattern to winning: excellent defense (third in the majors in defensive runs saved over those years), speed on the bases (first in baserunning runs) and effective bullpens (third in ERA and second in win probability added).

Tampa Bay's 2026 team is not those Rays.

• Defense: While they're sixth in DRS, the Rays are 26th in Statcast's outs above average, with a couple of clear defensive liabilities in third baseman Junior Caminero and first baseman Jonathan Aranda.

• Baserunning: Despite the presence of speedster Chandler Simpson, the Rays