How many medals will Canada win at the track and field world championships?

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As far as podium appearances go, Canada's track and field athletes have been pretty consistent at the big global championships so far this decade. They won six medals at the 2021 Olympics, four at the 2022 world championships, six at the 2023 worlds and five at the 2024 Olympics.

I feel like we can expect about that same level of production at this year's world championships in Tokyo, where all five of Canada's reigning world or Olympic champions will be competing.

In case you need a refresher, those are world and Olympic hammer throw gold medallists Ethan Katzberg and Camryn Rogers; men's 800m world champ (and Olympic silver medallist) Marco Arop; decathlon world champ Pierce LePage; and, of course, the Olympic-champion men's 4x100m relay team of Andre De Grasse, Aaron Brown, Jerome Blake and Brendon Rodney.

Aaron Brown, Perdita Felicien give their podium predictions for Tokyo 2025

A pair of silver medallists from the 2023 worlds — shot putter Sarah Mitton and decathlete Damian Warner, a former Olympic champ — are also in the hunt for more hardware in Tokyo. The only Canadian medallist from the most recent world championships or Olympics who won't compete is pole vaulter Alysha Newman, who's been sidelined since May.

But it's always good to compare your gut feelings to some hard data. With that in mind, we once again reached out to our friends at Shoreview Sports Analytics, who helped us handicap those big Summer McIntosh vs. Katie Ledecky showdowns at the swimming world championships in July. For this exercise, they simulated each event at the upcoming track and field