Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets in March Madness 2023 bracket

Who's ready to pick some upsets?

Now that we know the field for the 2023 men's college basketball tournament, you're trying to find that 12-over-5 upset that everyone just knows is coming. If you're like us, you'd also like some numbers to support that hunch.

Giant Killers is here for you. Back for a downright Boeheim-like 17th consecutive NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for March upsets.

You can read all about the details if you wish, but the idea is fairly straightforward. Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN's College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in each matchup.

As always, Giant Killers considers only matchups with at least a five-seed line differential (so, a No. 11 over a No. 6 in the first round, for example).

We know there will be upsets. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.

Here are Giant Killers' top 10 most likely upsets of the first round.

No. 12 VCU Rams vs. No. 5 Saint Mary's Gaels Upset chance: 43%

Here it is, your No. 1 most likely upset according to the Giant Killers model. A classic 12-over-5 surprise. Or would it be? The model gives VCU something close to a coin-flip chance against Saint Mary's. Not bad for a double-digit seed.

The Rams have improved dramatically since the beginning of the season and indeed markedly just in the past month. Adrian Baldwin Jr. is a dynamic lead guard, and as a team the Rams combine interior defense with steals to a degree that's unusual. Mind you, the model still likes the Gaels and their own stout defense to come away with the win. But VCU definitely has a chance.

No. 11 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones Upset chance: 42