FMIA: The Scourge of Draft Desperation and The Combine Without a Sure Thing

You learn a lot talking to smart people. Daniel Jeremiah’s a smart guy, and I learned a lot from our conversation Saturday evening. Namely: There is one position of great intrigue entering the Scouting Combine this week in Indianapolis, one position that is an absolute mystery with the draft kicking off two months from today.

Quarterback. Surprise!

Jeremiah, NFL Network’s prime draft analyst, has been doing his homework entering the Combine, and his research team came up with this gem: Since 2011, six teams have traded either into the top five picks of the first round, or higher in the top five, for a quarterback. And on every occasion, the acquiring team overpaid, per the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart. The acquiring teams and QBs:

2012: Robert Griffin III, second overall to Washington.

2016: Jared Goff, first overall to the Rams.

2016: Carson Wentz, second overall to Philadelphia.

2017: Mitchell Trubisky, second overall to Chicago.

2018: Sam Darnold, third overall to the Jets.

2021: Trey Lance, third overall to San Francisco.

The Bears have the first overall pick in 2023. There are four quarterbacks likely to go in the first half of the first round, and four teams with major quarterback needs in the top nine: Houston (two), Indianapolis (four), Las Vegas (seven) and Carolina (nine). I hear—though it might be smoke—that none of the four wants to scotch-tape a veteran like 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers and probably not Derek Carr. So the Bears, if they’re not going to use the first pick on a quarterback, could get rich quick by using quarterback desperation against these four teams.

What did the 2022 season teach us about pro football? You need a quarterback to reach the promised land, and you need defenders who can stop the