Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 16 score projections, over/unders and more - ESPN

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 16, which kicked off Thursday with the Saints at the Rams.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention «shallow» or «deep» leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. «Matchup» is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons -1
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr.

Josh Downs is trending down, having last produced a double-digit fantasy outing back in Week 8. Downs had 43 yards on 13 targets back in Week 12 (his first game back healthy and in a full-time role), but has since maxed out at 5 targets, 3 catches