Expert picks and best bets -- Where's the value at UFC and PFL? - ESPN

Rising men's flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira looks to extend his unbeaten streak to 16 in a row when he takes on Alex Perez in the main event at UFC Fight Night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPN+).

Taira (15-0), unranked by ESPN, could climb into the Top 10 with a win over the No. 7-ranked Perez. Taira has finished three of his last four opponents. Perez (25-8) ended a three-fight losing streak in April with a second-round knockout win over Matheus Nicolau.

There will also be MMA action on Thursday night as the PFL returns for the second half of the 2024 regular season (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 5:30 p.m. on ESPN+) with heavyweights and women's flyweights in action. The card at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, will be headlined by Valentin Moldavsky facing Linton Vassell.

Brett Okamoto spoke to CSA Gym MMA coach Kirian Fitzgibbons to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on both main events and other intriguing bets he likes on this weekend's cards.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How Perez wins: Despite facing an undefeated fighter, Perez is likely feeling confident after getting a knockout win against Nicolau on short notice. I don't know if I like back-to-back short-notice fights for a guy who had lost three in a row before his last win. I would have liked him to have a full camp to prepare for a specific opponent. Perez believes he's the better striker here, and I believe he's right. He has to keep the fight standing and anticipate the pressure from Taira. That means utilizing the low calf kick, working his jab and