England face risk v reward dilemma in must-win Women’s World Cup match

England face Bangladesh in their final group stage match of the World Cup at Wellington on Sunday – a game which they must win if they are to guarantee qualification for the semi-finals.

Australia and South Africa have already qualified, but England are still fighting it out with India and West Indies for the two remaining semi-final spots. India face South Africa on Sunday at Christchurch, in what is another must-win match: should either India or England lose their final game, West Indies will qualify at their expense.

There is another factor at play. Australia have finished top of the table after winning all seven of their groupstage matches, meaning that whoever finishes fourth will have to play them in the semi-finals – an encounter England will be keen to avoid after their recent disaster in the Women’s Ashes.

England may, therefore, wish to go at Bangladesh hard, as if India win then the team with the better net run rate will play South Africa, not Australia, in their semi-final.

On the other hand, a win against Bangladesh is by no means a foregone conclusion, especially given England’s catastrophic start to the tournament. By contrast Bangladesh have punched above their weight, claiming a historic nine-run win against Pakistan, and falling only five runs short of a victory against possible semi-finalists West Indies.

On Friday it was Australia’s turn to survive a scare. Chasing just 136, Meg Lanning’s team stumbled to 70 for five, after Bangladesh’s off-spinner Salma Khatun tore through their top three, including bowling Lanning for a duck. Australia eventually got over the line with five wickets to spare but the match shows how easily England’s fixture against Bangladesh could turn into a banana-skin.

England