Dr. Diandra: Will Martin Truex Jr.’s playoff bubble burst?

One playoff-eligible new winner in the next four Cup Series races will force a duel between Martin Truex, Jr. and Ryan Blaney for the last playoff spot — unless that winner is Truex or Blaney.

There’s been at least one new winner in the last four regular-season races every year since 2018.

Truex ran his first Cup Series race in 2004 at age 24. He earned his first points-race win with Dale Earnhardt, Inc. in 2007 at Dover. His second win came seven years later, with Michael Waltrip Racing. Then “Spingate” cost him his sponsor, and he landed at Furniture Row Racing.

Truex won the championship three years later, only to have Furniture Row announce it would shutter after the 2018 season. Truex has been with Joe Gibbs Racing since 2019 and announced in June that he would stay with the team for the 2023 season.

That history is to help make sense of the ups and downs in Truex’s career graph. The man has literally had to start over more than once.

In 607 races, the 42-year-old driver has 31 wins, 132 top-five finishes and 257 top-10 finishes. That’s a 5.1% win rate, a 21.7% top-five rate and a 42.3% top-10 finish rate.

The Next Gen car has challenged everyone, but Toyota more than most. With only six cars, Toyota collects a third of the data Ford and Chevy collect. Limited practice time forces teams to rely heavily on simulations. Less data means Toyota takes longer to validate its simulations relative to other manufacturers.

Truex’s year-at-a-glance graph reflects that challenge.

At this time last year, Truex had cemented a place in the playoffs with three wins. He had seven top-five finishes and 11 top-10 finishes. This year, Truex is yet to win and has only three top-five finishes. He hasn’t finished better than fourth.

Truex