Darlington Raceway hosts the first of the three races (Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on USA Network) that will eliminate four drivers from the Cup Series playoffs.
But which drivers?
That’s a harder question to answer this year than in previous years. Only nine points separate the fifth seed from the 16th seed. In addition, the changes the Next Gen car caused make historical statistics of questionable utility.
So I developed an algorithm to predict the first four playoff eliminations — based only on 2022 numbers.
Predicting the first drivers eliminated from the playoffs is a significantly different task than predicting the championship four. I used the following metrics in my algorithm.
Top-10 finishes: By definition, none of the first four playoff-eliminated drivers will have won a playoff race. Therefore, the algorithm must value running well and scoring points over winning. Playoff drivers have between four (Chase Briscoe) and 17 (Chase Elliott) top-10 finishes.
Average finishing position: A driver with a low average finishing position has few bad finishes or enough good finishes to offset the bad ones. Elliott has the best average finishing position by far, at 10.5. Briscoe and Denny Hamlin are tied for the worst average finishing position at 19.0.
Average running position: Although Hamlin and Briscoe have the same average finishing position, Hamlin has twice as many DNFs. Average running position provides a better measure of drivers’ strength in races they didn’t finish. Elliott has the best average running position (10.2) and Austin Cindric the worst (17.9).
Stage wins: I included stage wins because they reflect playoff points. Playoff drivers have between 0 (Austin Dillon) and 5 (Elliott, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Ross
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