Dr. Diandra: Auto Club Speedway first test of Busch-RCR partnership

Ever since Kyle Busch announced his move to Richard Childress Racing, pundits have questioned whether a Busch-RCR partnership is a step down for the two-time Cup Series champion. I’ve predicted that the move will benefit Busch and RCR.

But the truth is in the data.

The season’s first two events suggest promise. Busch rallied from a spin to place third in the Clash at the Coliseum. His new teammate Austin Dillon took second. But the Clash is an exhibition race on a track unlike any in the points-paying pantheon.

Busch’s 18th Daytona 500 run ended in disappointment when a last-lap crash dropped him to a 19th-place finish. Before the crash, Busch raced well — individually and teaming up with Dillon.

But the Daytona 500 rarely predicts a driver’s success over the rest of season.

Large, non-superspeedway ovals have almost disappeared from the NASCAR calendar. Auto Club, Michigan and Pocono each dropped from two races to one race a season. Drivers and fans hope for a return to the Indianapolis oval, but it isn’t happening this year.

Sunday marks the 33rd — and last — race at the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway. After the checkered flag flies, the track may be nipped and tucked into a half-mile oval. Or not.

The loss of Auto Club Speedway is a negative for Busch because he does well at these types of tracks. But the one race left provides the perfect setting to evaluate the Busch-RCR partnership’s progression.

Take a look at Busch’s 23-race record.

Wins: Busch has the most wins at Auto Club Speedway among full-time active drivers with four. Jimmie Johnson holds the record with six wins, while Kyle Larson’s two wins rank him second among full-time active drivers.

Win Rate: Busch posts a 17.4%-win rate, the second highest of current