Do NFL superteams usually win the Super Bowl? Will the Rams? - ESPN

Editor's note: This story originally published on Aug. 10 but has been re-published after news of Aaron Donald's return to the Rams. Los Angeles' Super Bowl odds have shifted from +550 to +500 over the past three weeks at DraftKings.

The 2026 Rams are the closest thing we've had to a preseason superteam in several years. Sean McVay's group was already a popular pick to win Super Bowl LXI before the offseason began. But then L.A. traded for Trent McDuffie and signed Jaylen Watson, shoring up the secondary at the expense of a potential Super Bowl opponent in the Chiefs. The move to draft Ty Simpson as Matthew Stafford's successor struck a curious tone, but general manager Les Snead responded with the mother of all high-stakes moves, trading Jared Verse and three picks to the Browns for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett.

Unsurprisingly, the Rams have become prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl after their aggressive moves this offseason. Picking any other team to win the Lombardi Trophy at this point would almost require coming up with some sort of explanation for what happened to the Rams along the way.

And yet, we have to look back only one year to remind ourselves how NFL seasons can play out entirely differently once players get on the field. In 2025, 68 ESPN personalities picked their AFC and NFC champions, along with an eventual Super Bowl winner, before the season kicked off. Not a single person picked the Seahawks or Patriots. I predicted the Chiefs and Packers, who combined for exactly zero playoff wins. Preseason darlings like the Chiefs, Lions and Commanders each missed the playoffs altogether.

Was 2025 just a weird year? And how often do heavily favorited superteams such as the 2026