Constitution Hill a once-in-a-lifetime talent but racing offers no guarantees

O ne of the earliest recorded uses of the phrase “a racing certainty” appears in the Monthly Magazine in October 1837, in an article recalling the St Leger of 1834. Plenipotentiary – or Plenipo to his fans – was the odds-on favourite, having won an unusually strong running of the Derby at Epsom earlier in the year.

“Plenipo, after beating the best lot of horses probably ever seen in the south of England, was sent to Doncaster,” it recounts. “If ever there was a racing certainty, it was that, barring accidents, he must win the Leger.”

He turned out to be anything but. As the article also relates, on “the last betting day” at Tattersall’s in London, “a commission arrived from a certain party to lay against him to any amount”. In the minutes before the race, poor Plenipo showed every sign of having been doped, and he finished unplaced behind a 40-1 chance.

Ancient history perhaps, but a reminder too that as Constitution Hill, the sport’s latest apparent “cert”, prepares to defend his unbeaten record in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham on Tuesday, “must” is a dangerous word in racing.

Not one opponent in Constitution Hill’s five starts has caused him even the slightest concern. The Nicky Henderson-trained six-year-old is the hottest favourite at next week’s Festival and the heavy hitters will be ready to wade in with five- and six-figure bets. Yet however strong a big-race favourite might look on paper, it still needs to go out and do the business on grass.

Michael Buckley, Constitution Hill’s owner, has spent a lifetime in racing, first as a punter and racegoer and then an owner. As a teenager, he remembers backing another hot favourite at Cheltenham, Mill House, when he was beaten by Arkle in the 1964 Gold Cup. But he