College football Week 6 best bets - ESPN

This college football betting card for Week 6 takes three different paths: a slow grind at Navy, a potential shootout in Happy Valley and a heavy favorite with too many flaws to trust. I'm targeting matchups where pace, defensive weaknesses and stalled drives could tell us more than the records or reputations do.

But first, a quick betting reminder for this week: we need both sides of a matchup to support the wager, because when one points toward the over and the other toward the under, I'm only getting half the case. It's the same case for a spread, too: Half the puzzle doesn't complete the puzzle.

Here's what Mark Zinno and I have for Week 6.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

USC's defense is bad — like really bad — and it travels worse. The Trojans have allowed around 31 points per game on the road over the past four years. This year's unit may be the worst yet, as they are ranked near the bottom of the country in coverage, tackling, defensive success… you name it, they're down there somewhere. That's a dream matchup for Penn State QB Rocco Becht, whose big-play threat Koby Howard can turn any missed tackle into six points.

Penn State has sputtered in Big Ten play. That much is true with back-to-back losses. To their benefit, nothing it has faced resembles this light of a defense. Even USC's pass rush looks to be among the nation's best, yet its weakest outing came on the road at Rutgers, producing just a single sack leaving little to believe it could travel better to Happy Valley.

The other half of the case is what the Nittany Lions defense hasn't seen either. On paper, PSU looks elite against the pass, however its schedule hasn't included a single top-40 passing offense. Even overmatched Wisconsin scored 24