College Football Playoff 2024 - Week 10 bubble watch - ESPN

One thing hasn't changed in the 12-team College Football Playoff picture: Independent Notre Dame is still an X factor.

When the 13-member CFP selection committee meets next week for its first ranking of the season, one of its most significant discussions will center around one-loss Notre Dame, which each week continues to distance itself from the home loss to Northern Illinois and also has a critical head-to-head win against surging Texas A&M.

Head-to-head results are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to separate teams with the same record — just like last season, when Texas won at Alabama in Week 2. And it continued to matter through Selection Day, when the Longhorns were kept above the Crimson Tide all season because of that win.

Head-to-head results, though, aren't always the final answer — like in 2021, when the committee ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of a Spartans win on Oct. 30. Strength of schedule looms large in the room, and the Fighting Irish still own the worst loss in the country — and one of the best wins.

So, where is Notre Dame after its lopsided 51-14 victory against previously undefeated Navy on Saturday?

This is a snapshot of what the committee might do today — through eight weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week — plus a look at eight more teams who could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.

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Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5

First-round byes

Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.

No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks: Oregon holds on to the top spot for a second