College football bowl matchups and factors to consider when making picks - ESPN

I love bowling. The inherent math behind the scoring system allows my overactive brain to constantly project my score for the entire game, there's a perfectly even playing field with everyone in the same lane with the same pin setup, no defense, and playing with beginners can be just as fun (or sometimes more fun) as playing with experts. Throw in a beer and some pizza, and you've got the perfect evening planned.

So when they asked me to write a bowling preview this week, I jumped at the chance!

Oh, you said «bowl game,» not «bowling»… well I guess I can do that too.

Nowhere are the results of bowl games more important than your pick 'em pool, spread pool, confidence pool, you name it. The monthlong game incurs a constant flow of information and allows for extra strategy (if you know how to apply it). Players are opting out left and right as others enter the transfer portal, and the coaching carousel is in full swing. You need to do a lot of digging to figure out how motivated a team might be, or how barren its depth chart is.

In turn, this leads to wild line movement, the likes of which are unachievable during most regular-season games. Initial articles are written with picks, then as more information comes out, touts and experts begin hammering home key storylines, which pushes the spread even further to account for the narrative. In most cases, that info is actionable, but occasionally, the line is stale and has already moved a few points, or the line was already set to account for that intel.

Normally I rely on ESPN Analytics' FPI data as the backbone for many of my picks, but when it comes to bowl season, I try to hone in on the flow of information and reading the tea leaves to get a feel for how teams will perform.