Canada can qualify for the World Cup tonight, but will need a lot of help

Canada can punch its ticket to the World Cup in Qatar on Wednesday night, but before getting too excited about that prospect, know that the likelihood of that happening is overwhelmingly poor.

Here’s what would have to happen for Canada to wrap up a World Cup berth on Wednesday:

1. Canada must defeat El Salvador – This part is doable. Canada is the last remaining undefeated CONCACAF side and hasn’t lost a match in El Salvador in 25 years. El Salvador hasn’t been mathematically eliminated yet, but for all intents and purposes, they’re only playing for pride over the final four matches. 

2. USMNT must lose to Honduras – As toothless as the United States looked on Sunday in Hamilton, the odds of a winless and already eliminated Honduras pulling off a massive upset are not good. The USMNT is 19-5-3 all-time against Honduras and their only loss against the Central Americans in World Cup qualifying at home came in 2001 at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., when Honduras came away with a 3-2 victory. Again, it’s possible, but don’t bet on it unless you’re comfortable with losing money.

 3. Panama must lose to Mexico – This part is also doable, but far from a certainty. The Azteca is a foreboding place for any visiting team to come to and that psychological edge will play in El Tri’s favour. Mexico is 22-12-5 all-time against Panama and El Tri’s only loss at home came in a 1980 friendly. History is on Mexico’s side, but their current form isn’t. El Tri’s past four qualifiers were as follows: 2-0 loss to the USMNT, 2-1 loss to Canada, last-gasp 2-1 win over 10-man Jamaica and a listless 0-0 draw against Costa Rica. Mexico remains on course for Qatar, but any further slip-ups could spell disaster with Tata Martino’s job a manager