By the numbers: A first round playoff preview

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The National Hockey League regular season has closed, so our attention now turns to the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Western Conference treated us to a compelling end-of-season finish, where the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators nabbed the final two playoff spots. The Eastern Conference, of course, has been decided for months.

This year’s first-round has an interesting dichotomy. Whether you are looking at the data, observing what oddsmakers are pricing in at sportsbooks, or just reaching out for consensus, there are clearly three heavy favourites: the Colorado Avalanche against the Nashville Predators (surely exacerbated now with Juuse Saros’ injury), the Florida Panthers against the Washington Capitals, and the Calgary Flames against the Dallas Stars.

The other five series are a bit less clear. Oddsmakers, as one example, are giving the Edmonton Oilers a significant amount of respect in the Jay Woodcroft era. They also see the Boston Bruins, despite having finished 32 goals back of the Carolina Hurricanes, as a serious threat to upset the top seed out of the Metropolitan. More on this in a moment.

To break down these series and better understand where upsets may manifest, consider the full-year results for each team measured against one another. The below table shows each team with home ice’s expected advantage at even strength versus their expected advantage at special teams, which considers both performance and the rate of penalties drawn and taken:

We have seen true underdogs not only compete but pull off staggering upsets in the first round in past postseasons. The NHL’s lower-scoring environment creates high intra-game volatility, and all it takes is some shooting luck or a