Breaking down college football playoff picture, conference races - ESPN

We're two weeks from the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, and if my social media mentions are any indication, it appears people have begun to think about the endgame here.

The 2024 college football season has been a delightful mix of paradigm-shifting upsets and big games that exceeded expectations. Everyone in the SEC has lost at least once — it's the first time that's been the case this early in the season since 2007, and you know how much I love 2007 references — and the best unbeaten team, Oregon, ranks just fifth in SP+ and eighth in FPI.

The best teams aren't producing the best résumés, and it's making the playoff race both messy and delightfully inclusive. Right now the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Iowa State (48.1%) and Boise State (46.0%) better playoff odds than Alabama (43.5%), while BYU (41.8%) is higher than Clemson (40.3%). In all, 28 teams have at least a 6% chance of making the 12-team field, including Illinois and an increasingly solid Colorado.

The final six weeks of this season, then, are going to be absolutely mad in the best possible way. Georgia's win over Texas made the SEC race as murky as possible, the Big 12 is always just one chaotic week away from a total mess, and the two other (particularly enormous) power conferences, the Big Ten and ACC, are praying they don't stumble into «three teams go unbeaten in conference play» scenarios.

This is a lot to keep track of! So, as November creeps ever closer on the calendar, let's take stock. Where does each power conference race stand? Which teams are most likely to position themselves well for an at-large playoff bid? And what the heck happens if Army or Navy beats Notre Dame? Let's dive in.

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