Betting the Memorial Tournament: Will Scottie Scheffler win again at Muirfield? - ESPN

Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio, is a genuine monster at 7,569 yards with elite-level difficulty on rating and slope with water everywhere. Approach play is everything here at the Memorial Tournament.

Muirfield is essentially an iron-play contest dressed up as a full PGA event. And the fairway miss penalty being the highest on Tour creates a compounding problem: Miss the fairway and you'll likely be hitting a long approach from an awkward lie into fast, undulated, tiny greens.

This week, I heavily weighed strokes gained approach plus tee-to-green to find my pool, then used around the green to trim the fat, and left everything else as noise. Because it's a signature event, I'm still putting my trust in very few players.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook (with ties) and subject to change.

Ludvig ÅbergTop 10 +136 (with ties): Got burned last week but I'm back to him again. Åberg's irons were neutral at Colonial but he's first in the field on approach, which means he had a down week. They happen. He's also second in the field from tee-to-green. His course history is positive with good approach numbers in back-to-back years and he has consistently been in contention this season.

The one honest concern is around the green (27th). If he misses the greens at Muirfield he could leak more than the top players but his greens in regulation rate is strong enough that he's not scrambling from trouble often. He has been shaky at best on Sunday, 43rd in fourth-round scoring average, but he shot 66 last year at this course, making it encouraging that he can make a Sunday run.

Top 5 -144 (with ties): This again? Yes. Why not? Each week we're essentially asking, will Scheffler do what Scheffler does? I haven't seen anything to give me