Betting the 3M Open: Birdies will fly at TPC Twin Cities - ESPN

The PGA heads to TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota for the 3M Open. The course is listed at 7,451 yards, but effectively can play closer to 7,200 because players can cut corners and fly hazards. The greens are large and the winning score is usually closer to 20 under (unless weather becomes a factor). With water on 12 of the 18 holes, if you keep the ball out of penalty areas, expect birdies everywhere.

The player I'm eyeing to contend can hit with distance off the tee, is elite on approach, specifically with long-iron play, and can at least give themselves birdie chances. The historical course fit says accuracy does well here, yet several contenders and winners absolutely bomb it.

Switching things up from the typical placement market, here are the players I like this week.

Odds by DK Sports (with ties) and subject to change.

Group C Winner: Doug Ghim +315

Others in the group: Corey Conners, Ben James, Max Homa, Sungjae Im

For a birdie fest, Ghim could spike. He's 19th in birdies despite being 124th in putting, which says his ballstriking is giving him opportunities. If the putter heats up a little bit, his scores can improve quickly. The rest of his game sets him up well, as he is 10th from tee to green and 11th in greens in regulation. If you told me putting is neutral for everyone over four rounds, Ghim would be the favorite of the group because his all-around game is above the rest. Conners has the higher long-term pedigree, but in a 32-round recent sample, Ghim's fit is more solid.

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Group F Winner: Ben Kohles +325

Others in the group: Casey Jarvis, Jason Day, Beau Hossler, Max Greyserman

Kohles is fourth on approach, sixth