Bet on Luka and the Mavericks, not the Timberwolves, to win the West

NBA fans and myself were expecting more of a heavyweight battle between the defending champion Denver Nuggets and the up-and-coming Minnesota Timberwolves. But now that Anthony Edwards & Co. are up 2-0, that series might be a wrap.

If you still like the Nuggets to come back, you can get them now at 16-1 to win the title. That said, I'm turning my attention to another team in the Western Conference who I believe is worth sprinkling a few bucks on.

To me, the betting value coming out of the West lies in the team people are talking about the least: the Dallas Mavericks.

I like Oklahoma City, but we can’t read too much into the Thunder's sweep of the Pelicans, since New Orleans didn’t have its best player in Zion Williamson. 

We also shouldn't read too much into how OKC went 3-1 against Dallas during the regular season, since Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving missed the final game between the two teams, and Doncic missed the meeting before that. 

Also, the Mavs smoked the Thunder by 30 in February.

From a matchup perspective, the Mavs are likely to hide their center (rookie Dereck Lively or Daniel Gafford) on Josh Giddey. By the way, Giddey is the weakest shooter OKC has (though he was 9-for-18 from deep against the Pelicans).

Dallas matches up great with OKC across the board, with Derrick Jones and Josh Green drawing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Mavs defense is one of the most underplayed stories of the last two months. Just ask Paul George (41/36 shooting and just 19.5 PPG) and James Harden (44/38 shooting and 21.2 PPG) about it. 

George’s numbers cratered from the regular season. And in the final two games when it mattered most, Harden was 7-of-28 shooting and 1-for-13 on 3-pointers.

Working against the Mavs is the fact