Assessing the risk of Thompson's extension with Sabres

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What is a player like Tage Thompson worth?

The Buffalo Sabres decided the answer to that question was, well, a lot of money. The Sabres were more than willing to bet big on the 24-year old and former first-round pick, signing him to a seven-year, $50 million dollar contract going into effect 2023-24. What makes Thompson such a fascinating player is, prior to the 2021-22 season, he was struggling to maintain himself as an NHL regular. But last season, in a contract year, Thompson’s play exploded to the upside. The winger-turned-centre scored 38 goals (68 points) in a new role, with the added bonus of some new linemates – most notably, speedy playmaking winger Alex Tuch.

I think the Thompson bet by the Sabres, and the evaluation of Thompson as a player, is fascinating. Buffalo clearly believes last season was not a fluke, and a new position with improved quality of teammates (not to mention the physical attributes!) finally saw him realize his potential. There is of course a separate bearish case against Thompson. Prior to last season, he was averaging just 10 goals a season – fourth-line production, bluntly. If you look at Thompson’s offensive output by year, you can see how different last season was.

Was it an outlier season, or a sign of things to come? This is why I think Thompson is such an intriguing case study, because every franchise deals with a player like Thompson. Do you risk not betting on the player because of a regression fear, or do you double down on a player whose play – which looks like outlier-performance – would well justify his next contract if it held up?

When we meet these moments, I prefer to not throw away data. Just as we should appropriately weigh Thompson’s breakout season