ACC betting preview: New-look Miami's repeat chances, underdogs for the title and more - ESPN

The Miami Hurricanes could be one of the best teams in the ACC, but that doesn't automatically make them one of the best bets. Will they be good enough to win 11 regular-season games? Will they be good enough to justify laying -135 to win the ACC? It's a no from me on both.

Last season, Miami won 10 regular-season games, earned an at-large berth to the CFP and made a run to the College Football Playoff National Championship game while finishing the season 11-5 ATS. Asking the Hurricanes to repeat those kinds of results is a big ask, especially with the production they're replacing.

The success of their season was driven by having the No. 1 pass rush in the country, but their top two pass rushers that accounted for more than half of the sack production (Akheem Mesidor, Rueben Bain Jr.) are gone. The secondary could be solid once more, but coverage and pass rush go hand in hand. If the pass rush allows quarterbacks more time to throw, even a talented secondary becomes harder to trust.

Then there's transfer QB Darian Mensah, whose overall numbers at Duke were solid with 3,973 passing yards for 34 TDs. He protected the ball, produced explosive plays and finished with a 76.6 QBR (19th in the country). But I'm not ready to assume that he will immediately elevate this offense in Miami because the Hurricanes are replacing four starters on the offensive line. Mensah's efficiency changed dramatically when pressured, as he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt but dropped to 4.7 under pressure. That's a reminder that he benefited from good protection, and there's no guarantee he'll get that same environment right off the bat.

Futures are about price, not picking the best team. Miami could be good, win 10 games and contend for the ACC, but