2025 WNBA Betting: Why Caitlin Clark offers the best value for MVP - ESPN

Caitlin Clark was the favorite to win the WNBA MVP award entering the 2025 season but when she was ruled out for at least two weeks with a quad injury, Napheesa Collier took the top spot on the oddsboard. Collier is currently the overwhelming favorite to win MVP (-300), but Clark is set to return on Saturday against the New York Liberty.

Could she still get back in the MVP race? If so, is there any value in betting on her at her current odds? Let's explore.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET .

Typically, the MVP award is given to a player that maximizes the intersection between individual production and team success. If we use fantasy scoring average as the metric for the former and team win percentage for the latter, the last 10 players to win MVP have averaged at least 40.2 FP/G and played on teams that won 74.8% of their games.

We are roughly 20% of the way through the season, with each team having played about nine or 10 of their 44 games. There is still plenty of time for things to change, but at present there are four players with a reasonable chance to fit the marks of an MVP.

Clark (+320) is third in the league with 41.5 FP/G, and her Fever have won 44.4% of their games.

A'ja Wilson (+2000) is second in the league with 44.3 FP/G, and her Aces have won 50% of their games.

Breanna Stewart (+3300) is twelfth in the league with 33.7 FP/G, just behind teammate Sabrina Ionescu (33.8 FP/G, +10,000 to win MVP), but her Liberty are the last undefeated team with a 100% win rate.

At present, Collier is the only player that would surpass the average criteria of an MVP in both metrics, which is why she is the prohibitive favorite. She is the most productive player in the league and