Should your favorite team move up or down during the NFL draft? It's an inexact science. In my time covering the league, most of the research I've seen has suggested that teams don't have much ability to pick between players at similar tiers, which has steered me toward the idea that trading down is best.
When I did a deep dive into this topic last year, though, I was surprised by the results. It's true that teams that trade up lose more often than they win, but when they're right, the players they land are successful enough to mostly make up for the times when they trade up and whiff. Between 2011 and 2023, in terms of expected value, teams collectively paid about the right price for what they got in return.
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While that's only one study, it seems more realistic to suggest there are scenarios in which trading up make sense. There are certainly types of trades that teams should avoid — trading a third-rounder in next year's draft for a fourth-rounder this year is still a terrible idea — but we need to apply more context to come to a conclusion about those moves. I'd argue that most teams should still lean more toward the trading down side of the equation, but each team's roster construction, draft capital and young core also matter in the discussion.
Let's apply some of that to the 2025 draft and answer the question I posed at the beginning: Which teams should be most interested in trading up in Round 1 on April 24? And which should be aiming to move down and amass extra selections? I've identified five franchises that should focus on trading down and three that should be most interested in moving up.
Jump to a team:
49ers | Browns | Commanders | Lions
Packers | Raiders | Seahawks |
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