2025 March Madness Final Four predictions, best bets by Chris "The Bear" Fallica

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

We're heading to the Final Four for college basketball, and I'm back with a few wagers for the next round of March Madness hoops. Let's dive into my picks. 

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke

I’ll be the fool to step in front of the Duke train here. 

If you look at the composite of KenPom, Torvik and Haslam, that grades the game out as a pick 'em. Duke has lost three times all season. Houston has lost just four times, with three of those losses coming in OT. We’ve got the top-ranked offense in Duke against the top-ranked defense in Houston, according to KenPom. 

The Cougars have bodies like Joseph Tugler and J'Wan Roberts to make life miserable on the interior and deny Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel clean looks. That also negates some of the impact Khaman Malauch has on the other end of the floor where, remember, Houston is the No. 2 3-point shooting team in the country (39.7%). The Cougars struggled in the first half of the Sweet 16 against Purdue but have been much better since. 

It really should be a fascinating matchup as to which numbers we think are more representative. 

The ACC was down bad this year and that's where Duke accumulated many of its numbers. Sure, the Blue Devils had non-conference wins, including against Auburn and Arizona, but wasn’t the Big 12 a lot better than the ACC this year? And Houston ripped through it, barring an OT loss to Texas Tech, which really should be playing this weekend. 

Houston has seven wins over top 15 KenPom teams (and three losses). Duke is 4-0. I wonder, too, how much extra motivation Houston has after last year’s Sweet 16. The Cougars likely would have beaten the Blue Devils, but Jamal