2024 NFL odds: Fade limping Texans in TNF Halloween showdown against Jets

Let’s start with the obvious: Why are the 2-6 Jets favored at home against the 6-2 Texans? 

If you’re not a gambler, you’re probably stunned that a team that has lost five straight games is favored over a legit contender in the AFC.

But if you take a peek under the hood — well, you can see why the Jets are favored. 

Houston’s underlying metrics this season are not very impressive, despite the record. After adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon this offseason, the Houston offense was expected to make a leap, but that hasn’t happened. 

The Texans are at 5.4 yards per play, which is exactly where they ended up last year. The offensive line has been a disaster, with LT Laremy Tunsil leading all linemen in penalties and guard Kenyon Green grading out as the worst of 77 guards who have played in the league this season, per Pro Football Focus.

Let's drill down on Houston's six victories. 

It had two non-covers in the division against the Colts, a victory over Caleb Williams in his second career start (first on the road), and wins over Jacksonville, New England and Buffalo. 

The Texans raced out to an early lead in that Buffalo game. And Nico Collins, who left at halftime due to a hamstring, hasn’t played since. They were leading 20-3, but then the offense struggled badly without Collins. They ended up winning on a last-second field goal.

Houston is now without Collins and Diggs and on a short week against a desperate Jets team that, at 2-6, has little to no hope for the playoffs. 

Historically, first-time head coaches struggle on Thursday Night Football, as the short week creates chaos that’s difficult to prepare for. Compounding matters, the Jets are banged up in the secondary, with two safeties likely to miss the game. And it’s