2024 NFL draft top pick predictions: Early chances to go No. 1 - ESPN

Who is going No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL draft? The early favorites are a pair of quarterbacks, but a lot can change in nine months. Let's predict which top prospect will ultimately be first off the board next April.

The race looks similar to the 2023 class, with QBs leading the way. Bryce Young ended up becoming the 17th signal-caller to be selected first overall since 2000 when the Panthers took him after trading up to the top spot ahead of the draft. Quarterback has indeed dominated the top of the draft, but defensive end (five) and offensive tackle (two) have also produced No. 1 selections over the past 25 classes. Those two positions have a few prospects who could get in the mix this year, too.

To get a sense of the 2024 race, let's take a run through the most likely candidates to go No. 1, including why each could make the leap and a way-too-early projected percentage chance for each to land at the top of the board. We begin with the favorite.

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Predicted chance of going No. 1 overall: 25%

Why he could be the top pick: Scouts were buzzing about Williams even before he became draft-eligible. He already has the production, highlight moments and mental makeup to get evaluators excited about his potential, so it's no surprise he's the favorite to be next April's first overall pick.

Williams finished last season with 4,537 passing yards, 42 touchdown throws and only five interceptions, and I see the kind of talent level that can immediately change the trajectory of an NFL franchise. His ability to decipher and dissect defenses in the pocket stands out, and he has an explosive release. Plus, his wizardry in making plays outside of the pocket fits with what's