2023 NFL free agency grades: Signings, trades, latest deals

With 2023 NFL free agency set to ramp up next week — the negotiating window starts March 13 at noon ET — ESPN sports analytics writer Seth Walder is grading every big NFL signing and trade of the offseason.

To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on factors that include: on-field impact, salary cap implications, draft compensation, player value/age and effects within the context of a team's short- and long-term outlook. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it's a good or bad choice? In addition, the backdrop to every decision should be: How does this affect a team's chance to win the Super Bowl, either this year or in the future? General managers making transactions don't have the luxury of seeing how it all plays out, so neither should we.

We also will have NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid approach the biggest moves from a draft perspective. What do the top deals mean for that team's first-round outlook come April, and how do they impact where the top prospects might be selected? Taking team needs, positional value on draft boards and what they're hearing from around the NFL, they break down what it all means.

Follow along as our experts evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top.

The deal: four years, $150 million with $60 million guaranteedGrade: C

One year ago the Saints showed irrational self-confidence by dealing a pile of future assets for an extra first-round selection to take a non-QB. This year, they're doing the same by signing Carr.

Don't get me wrong, Carr improves the Saints right now. He's a consistently just-above-average performer who has been ranked between 10th and 14th in QBR in each of the last four seasons, though the