2022 NBA draft -- Ranking the top 30 prospects based on stats and scouting

Two weeks away from the NBA draft, how do the top prospects and sleepers project to the NBA based on their statistics?

Back during the NCAA tournament in March, I posted initial 2022 draft projections for Division I prospects and members of G League Ignite. Along with updated stats for the full college season, I've since added international prospects — although just one who played outside the United States features in my top 30 — as well as a projection for Shaedon Sharpe based on his EYBL performance before reclassifying and spending last season at Kentucky.

We also now have a nearly complete list of who will be part of this year's draft. Although the NBA's deadline to withdraw from the draft isn't until next week, the NCAA's earlier deadline means college prospects headed back to school have already withdrawn. That's led to some shuffling based on where players rank in ESPN's top 100 prospects.

My projections translate performance in NCAA Division I and other leagues to an NBA equivalent and then adjust for age and position to project value over a player's next five seasons. Lastly, I add in ranking in the top 100 for the best consensus projection.

For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.

Power forward | Gonzaga Top 100: No. 1Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.4 WARP

There's no change at the very top of my projections, with Holmgren still the top-rated in both the stats-only version and the consensus projections. Holmgren's versatility stands out. He's the first prospect ever in my database to project to block at least 5% of opponent 2-point attempts and take at least 30% of his own shots from 3-point range. Add in projected 59% accuracy on 2-point attempts and Holmgren figures to make a big impact at