The numbers seemed to be in the grip of an irrepressible force: August 2022 began with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe's leading hub, trading gas at €145 per megawatt-hour (MWh), an alarming level.Two weeks later, the TTF broke through the €200 MWh barrier for the first time ever.
By 26 August, the TTF did the unthinkable: it reached €300 MWh. Suddenly, the prospect of the European citizens, accustomed to decades of prosperity, being subject to rationing and blackouts went from far-fetched to plausible. "Gas prices have broken a new record.
How high can they go?" read the top line of a Euronews article published that very week.The headline, while dramatic, encapsulated the atmosphere of uncertainty and anxiety – a polite euphemism for hysteria – that characterised the worst times of the energy crunch, an unheard-of phenomenon unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic and exacerbated by Vladimir Putin's decision to launch a war against Ukraine.Back then, no one could convincingly answer the "how high" question.
But today, a year later and with the benefit of hindsight, we can: after hitting the €300 MWh ceiling, Europe's gas prices began a steady decline and fell back to double-digit territory.Last Friday, the TTF closed trading at almost €35 MWh – an 88% decrease compared to the all-time peak achieved in August 2022.