If I'm placing bets on a Sunday, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I'm looking for the obscure. It's my specialty, anyway. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets.
So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. Results from last week are at the bottom of the story.
Odds by ESPN BET.
Bailey Zappe under 18.5 completions (+100)
There's no other way to say it — Zappe's numbers this season are rough. A 27 QBR, a -4% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) and a higher-than-average 19% off-target rate all suggest New England will want to limit Zappe's pass attempts. And when he does throw the ball, he's less likely to complete passes. I'm probably too low here — projecting 14.4 completions — but directionally I think the under makes sense.
See also:
Bryce Young over 16.5 completions (-125)
Baker Mayfield over 31.5 pass attempts (-110)
The Jaguars rank first in defensive pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, meaning they induce more passing from opponents given the game situation. That should work in the over's favor, and my model forecasts Mayfield to record 33.1 attempts Sunday.
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Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (+150)
Yes, he's playing the Giants and that's a pretty good reason to think he won't throw a pick — because the Eagles ought to be winning big, as the 13.5-point spread suggests. But sometimes picks just happen — tipped passes or fluky plays or bad throws — and Hurts has the fifth-highest
diving
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ESPN
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Bailey Zappe