The most extreme March Madness upsets are happening more often. Why?

U psets have always been a defining element of March Madness and this year has been no different. The 2023 tournament had barely tipped off when No 13 seed Furman, the smallest school in the field by enrolment making their first appearance in 43 years, sent fourth-seeded Virginia packing. By the end of opening weekend, half of the four No 1 seeds were already out. But none of this is terribly unusual in an event where fans have come to expect the unexpected.

What is unusual is the teams who are springing the upsets.

Consider that it took more than three decades from when the current format was introduced until a No 16 seed finally beat a No 1. Now it’s happened twice in five years, after Fairleigh Dickinson stunned Purdue on Friday to join UMBC in the record books. Or that No 15s had only won four tournament games in all for more than a quarter-century of the 64-team era, but Princeton’s surprise run to the Sweet 16 makes it 12 wins for teams seeded 15th since 2012 (including Saint Peter’s charmed run to the Elite Eight in 2022).

Is there a reason behind the uptick in these extreme upsets in recent years? Your guess is as good as mine, but it feels like a good time to explore some possibilities.

The NCAA transfer portal was introduced in 2018, along with new rules that allowed student-athletes to transfer schools without having to sit out a year. This has drastically increased the number of transfers, as they have been incentivized with the freedom to play right away. It’s a controversial change that has prompted coaches to recruit transfers as often, or sometimes more often, than they do high-school kids. Adding an experienced player gives teams a chance to get better right away, skipping over the adjustment phase