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Why have Erdogan's voters shrugged off skyrocketing inflation, accusations of cronyism corruption – the kind that led to the collapse of buildings in earthquake zones – and the steady jailing of opponents and journalists?
And across the Black Sea, they are bracing for battle. With so much of Russia's military now at the front, Moscow’s Red Square saw a scaled-down May 9 Victory Day parade this year. Although Russia’s President Vladimir Putin did manage to convince leaders of seven former Soviet states to drop in, including some that have kept their distance from his “special military operation”. In Kyiv, May 9 was marked with the president of the EU Commission coming to celebrate Europe Day alongside the president of EU candidate country Ukraine.
Polls already suggested that Turkey's opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu had more than an even chance in a runoff against Erdogan. Now, after managing to unite six disparate parties behind his name, and the sudden pullout of a seventh, what to expect in the run-up to Sunday, during the vote and once the ballots have been cast?
>> Read more: Looking back at 20 years of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in power
>> Read more: Turkey's Erdogan wants to create chaos to win next elections, says journalist Can Dundar
Produced by François Picard, Maya Yataghene, Imen Mellaz, Clémence Waller and Edie Twells Eastwood
Elsewhere, Israel has marked Memorial Day in the run-up to its 75th anniversary of independence. This year's commemorations remembering fallen soldiers and victims of terror attacks have taken place against a backdrop of deep political divisons. On Monday, thousands attended a joint Israeli-Palestinian memorial. The event, which has always stirred controversy, made headlines once again after Israel's top court ordered authorities to allow 150 Palestinians to attend the ceremony in Tel Aviv, despite a government ban.
Turkey is counting down to elections on 14 May, with the economy the single most important issue for voters.